Wednesday, July 7, 2010
The American Dream Revisited
Government for the People
I can’t remember a time filled with more investor anxiety and uncertainty. Even as we stood on the edge of the economic precipice in September 2008, we did so with a bit of financial naiveté as to what we were facing. But with innocence lost after the last two years, we now understand the potential negative scenarios ahead of us and it leaves employers, markets and consumers almost paralyzed with caution.
The uncertainty stems from a dichotomy of outlook. American companies continue to post strong profits, and most have positive expectations for the rest of year. In addition, the leading economic data considered to provide the best visibility on the direction of the overall economy continues to paint a picture of a subdued but consistent recovery taking place. And no one seems to care. All positive reports are promptly disregarded and the nation as a whole seems overly focused on whatever negatives news we can glean.
The stock market sells off on bad news, and the stock market sells off on good news. It leaves me wondering why?
Before I answer my own question, know that I tend toward the conservative side of the spectrum. Not the “defend Republicans at every turn” type of conservative, but rather the “live and let live, government is rarely the answer” type of conservative.
My answer is this: Federal government, please take a break for a while Business reporters used to talk about things like earnings, stock valuations and mergers, now all anyone talks about is the government, and the government itself just won’t shut up.
First there was the auto industry, forget 200 years of bankruptcy law, there’s a new sheriff in town and he does things his way. Then there was the endless debates on healthcare “reform”, now financial “reform” and next probably energy “reform”. There’s deficit spending that literally boggles the mind and trillion dollar stimulus plans that nobody even notices on the ground.
And to what avail? Considering all the conflicts of interest in Washington, all this overheated rhetoric eventually gives us watered down adjustments to the status quo that provide real solutions.
It seems like investors hang on all this debate in breathless anxiety, only to ask in confounded fashion at the end “is that it?”. Washington is solving no problems, which is fine with me, but they really need to stop acting like they’re going to, and just take a break.
If the government could just relax for a while from all this “reforming”, focus on giving us some answers about 2011 tax rates after the “Bush” tax cuts expire (namely the dividend and capital gains taxes), and at the very least provide us with some rhetoric on how it’s going to deal with its outrageous budget deficit, I think America could get back to the business of America, which is business…not government.
And heck, who knows, if we all get back to business there might just be a job or two created in the process. Happy Fourth of July.